据美国钻井网站2021年5月4日报道，由于全球石油需求回升，油价很有可能在未来几个月上升至每桶70美元。

　　这是挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的石油分析师路易丝·迪克森在周一发给美国钻井网站的一份声明中说的。迪克森在声明中强调，尽管印度石油需求下降，但油价很有可能实现价格里程碑。

　　迪克森说：“由于新冠肺炎疫情大流行限制了流动性，到2021年5月，印度对包括汽油、柴油和航空燃油在内的石油产品的总需求将降至每天400万桶以下?！?/p>

　　迪克森补充说：“印度的石油需求低于每天400万桶，这令人担忧，远低于印度新冠病毒疫情爆发前每天500万桶的水平，但与去年4月下降到每天310万桶相比，仍然相当有弹性?！?/p>

　　Rystad的代表接着说：“印度的紧张情绪目前正在阻止油价进一步上涨，但随着6月交货的原油现在成为焦点，油价可能会因季节性石油需求增加而上涨，而且随着全球大多数地区取消对Covid-19的限制，这将对需求提供更多的支持?！?/p>

　　迪克森指出，从现在到6月底，Rystad预计全球石油需求每天至少会增加300万桶。他说，这将抵消印度市场的混乱状态，也足够容纳欧佩克+额外增加的原油产量。

　　在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶68.14美元。布伦特原油在3月上旬有几天收于每桶70美元下方。

　　根据世界卫生组织的最新信息，自4月15日以来，印度每天有20多万例Covid-19确证病例，自4月21日以来，印度每天有2000多人死亡。

　　李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

　　原文如下：

　　Very Likely Oil Will Rise Towards $70

　　It’s very likely that oil will claw back towards $70 per barrel in the coming months as the global demand uptick tips the scale to positive.

　　That’s according to Rystad Energy oil analyst Louise Dickson, who made the comment in a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday. Dickson highlighted in the statement that it was very likely the price milestone would be achieved despite a demand downside in India.

　　“The total demand for Indian oil products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, will plunge below the four million barrel per day threshold in May 2021 as new Covid-19 restrictions pinch mobility,” Dickson said.

　　“Indian oil demand below four million barrels per day is cause for concern and far below the pre-virus levels of about five million barrels per day, but still rather resilient if compared to the drop to 3.1 million barrels per day back in April 2020,” Dickson added.

　　“India jitters are currently stopping oil prices from rising further but, with June-delivery barrels now in focus, prices may increase on seasonal oil appetite additions and as the removal of Covid-19 restrictions in most of the world will lend more demand support,” the Rystad representative went on to say.

　　Dickson noted that between now and the end of June, Rystad sees oil demand jumping by at least three million barrels per day. Dickson said this will offset the India snarl, as well as be plenty to accommodate extra OPEC+ barrels.

　　At the time of writing, Brent crude prices stood at $68.14 per barrel. Brent closed just below $70 per barrel on several days during the first half of March.

　　According to the latest information from the World Health Organization, there have been more than 200,000 cases per day of Covid-19 in India since April 15, and more than 2,000 deaths per day since April 21.

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