据6月1日Oil Monster消息：全球最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯预计将小幅提高7月亚洲轻质原油官方售价(OSPs)，尽管原油基准走强，但利润率疲弱和需求不确定性限制了其上行势头。

　　亚洲五家炼油商的消息人士预计，沙特旗舰级阿拉伯轻质原油7月OSP将上涨10美分/桶，他们的预测从不变到上涨20美分不等。

　　阿拉伯轻质原油的预期调整跟随中东原油基准Cash Dubai和DME Oman的价格走势，5月份它们对迪拜掉期的溢价分别比4月份上涨了14美分和8美分。

　　但三名受访者表示，亚洲炼油利润率的疲弱，尤其是燃料油的利润率，预计将导致7月份沙特较重原油品级的原油价格下降。

　　他们预计阿拉伯中型原油价格每桶将下降10-30美分，阿拉伯重型原油价格每桶将下降40-70美分。

　　亚洲5月下半月极低硫燃料油价格大幅下跌至五个月低点，因市场担心现货燃料和发电行业供应充足而需求疲弱。

　　随着亚洲部分地区新型冠状病毒感染病例急剧增加，人们对交通燃料的需求引发担忧，新的出行限制措施在5月份令亚洲对汽油的需求受到打击。

　　上个月，由于西方需求复苏相对较快，推动了亚洲以外的套利出货，汽油和航空燃料受益于炼油利润率的提高，但在几个地区市场，它们也因疫情引发的需求疲软而陷入困境。

　　市场的注意力还集中在石油输出国组织及其盟友 (欧佩克+) 周二举行的会议上，其中产油国可能会坚持缓慢放松供应限制。

　　沙特原油期货合约通常在每月的5号左右发布，并为科威特和伊拉克的价格设定了趋势，影响到每天运往亚洲的1200多万桶原油。

　　国有石油巨头沙特阿美根据客户的建议设定原油价格，并根据产量和产品价格计算过去一个月石油价值的变化，确定其原油价格。

　　沙特阿美官员出于政策考虑，不对每月的运营业绩发表评论。

　　冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

　　原文如下：

　　Saudi Arabia Expected to Raise July Light Crude Prices for Asia

　　Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to slightly increase its July official selling prices (OSPs) of light crude for Asia, as margin weakness and demand uncertainty cap the upside despite stronger crude benchmarks, a Reuters survey showed.

　　Sources at five Asian refiners on average expected the July OSP for Saudi flagship grade Arab Light to rise by 10 cents a barrel, with their forecasts ranging between no change to an increase of up to 20 cents.

　　The expected adjustment for Arab Light tracked the price strength in Middle East crude oil benchmarks Cash Dubai and DME Oman, which in May saw their premiums to Dubai swaps up by 14 cents and 8 cents respectively from April.

　　But weakness in Asia's refining margins, also known as cracks, in particular for fuel oil, is expected to bring cuts in July OSPs for heavier Saudi crude grades, according to three of the respondents.

　　They forecast a price reduction of 10-30 cents a barrel for Arab Medium and a cut of 40-70 cents a barrel for Arab Heavy.

　　Asia's crack for 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) fell sharply in the second half of May to five-month lows amid concerns of ample supplies and weak demand in the spot bunkering and power generation sectors.

　　Asia's crack for gasoline also took a beating in May as fresh mobility restrictions amid a sharp rise in coronavirus cases from new variants in parts of Asia raised demand concerns for transportation fuels.

　　Gasoil and jet fuel, which benefited from higher refining margins last month thanks to a relatively faster demand recovery in the West that was boosting arbitrage shipments out of Asia, also struggled with COVID-19-induced demand weakness in several regional markets.

　　The market's attention was also on a Tuesday meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, in which the producers are likely to stick to a slow easing of supply curbs.

　　Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia.

　　State oil giant Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.

　　Saudi Aramco officials as a matter of policy do not comment on the kingdom's monthly OSPs.

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