据世界石油网站7月5日消息 布伦特油价自2018年以来首次升至每桶77美元以上，此前欧佩克+未能就恢复削减的产量达成协议，导致市场供应比预期更为紧张。

　　伦敦期货价格涨幅高达1.2%。该集团的石油部长们未能达成妥协，维持目前8月份的产量限制，并在需求从疫情中恢复之际，剥夺了市场所需的额外产量。

　　TD证券分析师丹尼尔加利在电话中表示：“从目前的情况来看，这是一个相当看好油价的情况，我们应该看到能源市场收紧的速度比我们最近几个月预期的要快。”

　　在周一的谈判之前，由于沙特坚持从8月份开始提高产量，并将欧佩克+协议延长至2022年底，而阿联酋则为自己寻求更好的条件，谈判从上周开始推迟。该集团未能增加供应，将进一步挤压本已紧张的市场，引发对通胀的担忧。

　　大多数欧佩克成员国支持一项提议，即从8月份起每月增产40万桶/天，并将更广泛的供应协议的到期时间推迟到明年年底。为了同意延期，阿联酋试图改变用于计算配额的基准线，此举可能使其日产量多增加70万桶。

　　6月原油连续第三个月上涨，因为广泛的疫苗接种帮助恢复了需求，而欧佩克+抑制了供应，但油价创下两年多来的最高点，引发了人们对其对全球经济影响的担忧，白宫已经对汽油价格上涨表示担忧。

　　尽管欧洲和美国的需求信号强劲，但病毒在亚洲部分地区再次蔓延，导致行动受到更多限制。

　　摩根士丹利估计，从5月至6月，全球石油日需求将增加300万桶。由于其它地区的供应增长甚微，即便是欧佩克提出的增产计划，也很可能使市场陷入赤字，这将支撑布伦特原油价格在该行今年下半年每桶75-80美元的预测区间内。

　　吴恒磊编译自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　://www.worldoil.com/

　　Brent crude passes $77 as OPEC fails to reach new oil output deal

　　(Bloomberg) - Brent oil prices rose above $77 a barrel for the first time since 2018 after OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on bringing back curtailed output, leaving the market with tighter supplies than expected.

　　Futures rose as much as 1.2% in London. The group’s oil ministers were unable to reach a compromise, keeping current production limits in place for August and depriving the market from the extra barrels it needs as demand recovers from the pandemic.

　　“As things stand now, this is quite a bullish scenario for oil prices,” TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali said by phone. “We should see the energy market tighten up at a faster pace than we anticipated in recent months.”

　　Talks on Monday followed a delay from last week as the Saudis stood firm about raising output starting in August and extending the OPEC+ agreement to the end of 2022, while the United Arab Emirates sought better terms for itself. The failure by the group to increase supply will further squeeze an already tight market, raising concerns over inflation.

　　Most OPEC+ members backed a proposal to increase output by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August, and push back the expiry of the broader supply deal into the end of next year. To agree to an extension, the UAE sought to change the baseline that’s used to calculate its quota, a move that could allow it to boost daily production by an extra 700,000 barrels.

　　Crude rose for a third month in June as widespread Covid-19 vaccinations have helped revive demand while OPEC+ has curbed supply. But prices at the highest in more than two years have raised worries over its impact on the global economy, and the White House is already voicing concern about rising gasoline prices.

　　While demand signals are strong in Europe and the U.S., the virus is spreading again in parts of Asia, resulting in increased restrictions on movement.

　　Morgan Stanley estimates global daily oil demand is set to increase by 3 million barrels from the May-June period to December. With little supply growth elsewhere, even the proposed increase from OPEC+ will likely keep the market in deficit. That will support Brent prices within the bank’s forecast range of $75 to $80 a barrel in the second half of this year.

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