据彭博新闻社2021年7月7日报道，尽管油价上涨，需求反弹，但美国能源信息署（EIA）预计它们对明年美国国内原油产量增长的影响有限。

　　EIA周三在一份报告中说，美国石油公司今年的原油日产量将达到1110万桶，比此前的预测多出2万桶。 明年的原油日产量将增加6万桶至1190万桶，这是自3月份以来首次向上修正。 与此同时，EIA把其对今年西德克萨斯中质原油的价格预测上调了4美元，至每桶65.85美元。

　　对美国原油产量增长有限的预估出炉之际，正值国内原油供应以数十年来最快速度下滑，且就在几天前，欧佩克+谈判宣告失败，令市场不确定欧佩克+何时会增加原油供应。

　　最近几个月，美国页岩生产商并没有大幅提高产量，他们更看重纪律和投资者回报，而不是供应增长。 到目前为止，每周公布的政府原油产量数据也证实了这一点，国内原油产量持平在略高于1100万桶/日，较疫情前的峰值低约200万桶。

　　EIA在一份电子邮件声明中表示，除了油价上涨之外，到2022年之前的产量预测还源于4月份的实际产量比模型最初预测的要高。

　　展望2022年，EIA将油价预测上调了6.23美元/桶，但仍预计油价将低于今年的62.97美元/桶，因为EIA预计美国和欧佩克+的递增的产量增长将超过消费量。

　　EIA表示，这一预测已于7月1日完成，而欧佩克+的会议周一未达成决议，但EIA仍预计欧佩克+将在7月后继续增加产量。

　　李峻 编译自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Higher oil prices will have limited effect on U.S. crude output, EIA projects

　　The U.S. sees limited domestic oil production growth through next year despite rising oil prices and rebounding demand.

　　Oil companies will produce 20,000 barrels a day more than previously forecast for this year, at 11.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said in a report Wednesday. Output next year was raised 60,000 barrels day to 11.9 million, making it the first upward revision since March. At the same time the agency boosted its price forecast for West Texas Intermediate by $4 a barrel to $65.85 for 2021.

　　The forecast for limited U.S. output growth comes as domestic supplies are falling at the fastest rate in decades and just days after OPEC+ negotiations failed, leaving the market uncertain about when to expect more supplies from the group.

　　U.S. shale producers haven’t significantly boosted production in recent months, favoring discipline and investor returns over supply growth. Weekly government oil production data so far has been a testament to that, with domestic output flat-lining at just above 11 million barrels a day, roughly 2 million barrels under its peak before the pandemic.

　　In addition to higher prices, the projections for more output through 2022 also stem from stronger actual production volumes in April than its model had originally predicted, the EIA said in an emailed statement.

　　Looking to 2022, the agency revised up its price forecast by $6.23 a barrel but still sees lower prices than this year at $62.97 as it expects incremental production growth from U.S. and OPEC+ to outpace consumption.

　　The EIA said that this forecast was completed on July 1, before OPEC+ ended its meeting without a resolution on Monday, but that it still expects OPEC+ to continue to increase production beyond July.

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