据彭博社7月14日报道，由于主要产油国即将大量出口原油的前景十分不明朗，石油价格上涨至两年半以来的最高水平，同时，国际能源署（IEA）警告称，供应危机正在加剧。

　　周二，纽约原油期货价格上涨1.6%，收于每桶75.25美元，为2018年10月以来的最高结算价。IEA在一份报告中称，在欧佩克+成员国陷入僵局之际，原油供应将"大幅收紧"。

　　Oanda公司的高级市场分析师Ed Moya表示:“供应短缺将再次成为市场主要驱动因素。”

　　美国石油协会（API）表示，上周美国原油供应减少408万桶，俄克拉荷马州库欣（Cushing）这一美国最大的原油储备中心的库存也有所下降，期货价格继续上涨。

　　随着疫苗接种的推进加速了各经济体的重新开放，推高了燃料消费，油价今年已飙升逾50%。欧佩克和其他产油国通过采取循序渐进的方式恢复中断的供应，支撑油价。

　　但是，由于阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯之间的争端持续，该石油财团在增产问题上陷入僵局。8月份，两国原油产量将均保持稳定。

　　花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)大宗商品研究主管Ed Morse在一封电子邮件中表示:“即使欧佩克决定在8月份增产，原油也要等到8月份需求高峰期结束后才能到达炼油厂。”

　　价格方面

　　纽约商品交易所8月份交货的西德克萨斯中质原油交易价格为每桶75.14美元。

　　欧洲期货交易所9月份交割的布伦特原油价格上涨1.33美元，收于每桶76.49美元。

　　值得一提的是，油价在不断上涨，但需求反弹仍受到新冠肺炎变异病毒株迅速传播的威胁。随着新冠肺炎疫情在尚未完全大面积接种疫苗的东南亚地区传播，迫使这些地区的工作和出行受到限制。

　　东南亚最大的经济体印尼正受到一波特别残酷的疫情的打击，促使工业中心爪哇和旅游胜地巴厘岛采取了限制措施。马来西亚仍处于全国封锁之中，而泰国刚刚加强了出行限制。

　　API报告称，上周汽油供应减少154万桶，蒸馏油库存增加370万桶。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Oil advances to 33-month high on warning about supply crunch

　　Oil rose to the highest price in more than 2 1/2 years as prospects of the major producers waned while the International Energy Agency warned of a deepening supply crunch.

　　Futures in New York advanced 1.6 per cent to close at US$75.25 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest settlement since October 2018. Crude supplies are set to “tighten significantly” amid a deadlock among members of the OPEC+ alliance, the IEA said in a report.

　　“The supply-deficit story is reasserting as the primary driver,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.

　　Futures clung to gains after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude supplies fell 4.08 million barrels last week and inventories declined at the nation’s biggest storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma.

　　Oil prices have surged more than 50 per cent this year as vaccination rollouts accelerated the reopening of economies, boosting fuel consumption. OPEC and allied crude producers have supported prices by taking a gradual approach to resurrecting shuttered supplies.

　　The oil consortium has been deadlocked on increasing production as the dispute between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia persists. Both countries have locked in stable crude output for next month.

　　“Even if OPEC decides to raise output in August, that crude will not reach refineries until after the August peak-demand period will be over,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in an email.

　　Prices

　　West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded at US$75.14 a barrel at 4:47 p.m. in after-market trading after settling at US$75.25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

　　Brent for September settlement advanced US$1.33 to end session at US$76.49 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

　　Still, the demand rebound is imperiled by the swift spread of the COVID-19 delta variant, which is forcing restrictions on work and mobility as it spreads through a largely unvaccinated Southeast Asia.

　　Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, is being wracked by a particularly brutal wave of the pandemic, prompting restrictions in the industrial heartland of Java and the tourist enclave of Bali. Malaysia is still in the midst of a nationwide lockdown, while Thailand has just stepped up limitations.

　　The API also reported gasoline supplies fell 1.54 million barrels last week and distillate inventories rose 3.7 million barrels.

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