据今日油价7月29日报道，大约一周前，沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子在接受彭博社采访时表示，沙特阿拉伯将会是坚挺到最后的石油供应商，所有的油气资源都会被释放出来。

　　要知道，本·萨勒曼被誉为全球油气行业最有权势的人，这个言论是在最新的欧佩克+协议达成后不久发表的，而沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔在2019年1月表达了类似的观点。

　　这可能不是毫无意义的恫吓。2019年末, 国际能源署（IEA）石油工业和市场部主管尼尔·阿特金森（Neil Atkinson）表示,“至少在未来十年，甚至更长的时间内，石油产品的需求将不断上升，这将巩固（沙特阿拉伯）作为全球市场基石的角色，成为市场上最可靠和最大的供应商。”

　　阿特金森还强调了另一个很少被讨论的石油需求逆风影响因素，即关键需求地区人口的减少。阿特金森认为，人口增长仍然是石油需求的主要驱动力，他估计石油需求可能在本世纪30年代达到峰值。

　　在过去的几年里，能源界的大部分注意力都集中在气候变化等似乎更关乎生死存亡的危机上。现在，重点聚焦在新冠肺炎疫情的局势上，但人口减少很少被认为是长期石油需求前景的主要不利因素。这可能是因为，与其他两个风险因素不同，人口下降确实是一个听起来有利的事情，因为这说明更多的女性接受教育和工作，以及更多的避孕手段，导致女性可以选择少生孩子。另一个原因是，人口下降是一个非常缓慢的过程，其全面影响可能需要几十年才能感受到。

　　但毫无疑问的是，专家们现在警告称，世界人口正在以比预期更快的速度下降，这可能最终会对包括能源在内的全球经济主要领域产生巨大影响。

　　7月初，华盛顿大学(University of Washington)健康指标与评估研究所(Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation)的研究人员警告称，人口下降和老龄化已不再是发达经济体的问题，而是世界大多数国家目前正在面临的问题，这些国家都在渐渐过渡到人口自然下降的情况。

　　1950年，女性一生平均生育4.7个孩子，后来，生育率在2017年几乎减半至2.4，预计到2100年将降至1.7以下。这一数字远低于发达国家平均每位妇女生育2.1个孩子的更替水平，这意味着到本世纪初，全球人口将经历大规模缩减。

　　事实上，研究人员预测，全球人口将在2064年左右达到97亿的峰值，然后在2100年降至88亿。

　　主要石油消费国人口下降

　　对油气看涨者来说，长期形势不明朗的原因是，预计主要石油和天然气消费国的人口将大幅下降。

　　中国是世界第二大石油消费国，每天的消费量估计为1280万桶，而日本是世界第四大石油消费国，每天的消费量为400万桶。

　　第三大石油消费国印度的情况将略好一些，但到2100年仍将损失四分之一的人口。俄罗斯是世界第五大人口大国，预计其人口将下降15-50%。

　　美国人口预计将从2020年的3.31亿增长到2060年的4.04亿，届时人口预计将保持稳定。

　　与美国一样消耗石油的欧元区是少数几个亮点地区之一。欧洲人口预计将继续增长，从2020年的5.07亿增长到2075年的7.08亿，到2100年下降到6.89亿。

　　然而，欧洲也制定了一些世界上最积极的气候目标，欧盟已经宣布了一系列气候变化提案，旨在推动其实现到2050年实现碳中和的目标。

　　人口减少的问题可能会因老龄化危机而加剧。

　　据英国广播公司报道，到2100年，全球80岁老人的数量将从目前的1.41亿人增加到8.66亿人。

　　在美国，到2060年，65岁及以上的美国人将从5640万增加到9820万，增幅近75%。根据2019年的统计数据，并假设每位司机每加仑汽油平均行驶20英里，这意味着汽油需求将下降约5%。55-64岁年龄组的行驶里程(每年11972英里)大幅下降至65岁及以上年龄组的7646英里。

　　老龄化也会对经济产生不利影响，60岁以上人口比例增加10%，人均GDP增长率预计将下降5.5%。

　　非洲的情况

　　非洲人口的快速增长可能会在一定程度上弥补这一不足，但可能远远不足以遏制发达国家的发展趋势。

　　非洲是一个有趣的案例，这不仅是因为对未来几十年的人口预测在某种程度上可能是至关重要的，而且还因为非洲大陆拥有庞大的人口，每天消耗430万桶石油，甚至只是略低于印度。

　　联合国预计非洲人口将从2020年的13亿增加一倍，到2050年达到25亿，到2100年达到43亿。联合国估计，非洲的生育率(从1980年的6.7降至4.4)还需要30年才能降至每个妇女生育3个孩子以下。

　　然而，这低估了非洲大陆大部分地区上学女孩数量大幅增加的影响。上世纪70年代，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的小学入学率仅略高于一半，此后这一比例几乎上升到100%。

　　从世界其他地区获得的经验教训表明，在预测人口增长曲线时，教育因素不可低估。

　　此外，尽管大多数新兴经济体都没有参与到持续的ESG繁荣中来，但非洲正在赶上国际货币基金组织（IMF）的预测，即到2050年，非洲的电力消费将有意义地转向可再生能源，预计到2100年，大部分电力将来自太阳能和风能。

　　总的来说，我们可以推测，全球的人口趋势对长期的石油需求前景构成了缓慢但真实的威胁，甚至取代了世界各国政府感到日益头疼的气候政策。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　Shrinking Global Populations Poses An Existential Threat To Oil

　　about a week ago, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman made waves in the oil community after telling Bloomberg News that Saudi Arabia "...is going to be the last man standing, and every molecule of hydrocarbon will come out."

　　The comments by bin Salman—heralded as the most powerful man in the global oil and gas industry—came shortly after the latest OPEC+ agreement and mirrored those by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, who expressed similar sentiments back in January 2019.

　　And this might not be idle bluster: In late 2019, Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency, told CNBC that, "There's going to be rising demand for at least the next decade for oil products, possibly longer, and this is cementing [Saudi Arabia's] role as the cornerstone player in global markets, the most reliable and biggest supplier in markets."

　　Atkinson also highlighted another rarely discussed oil demand headwind: Shrinking populations in key demand locations. According to Atkinson, population growth remains the key driving force for oil demand, which he estimated could peak in the 2030s.

　　Over the past few years, most of the energy community's attention has been focused on seemingly more existential crises such as climate change. Now, the focus is on the Covid-19 pandemic. But seldom is population decline mentioned as a major headwind for the long-term oil demand outlook.

　　Maybe that's the case because, unlike the other two risk factors, population decline really is a success story being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children. Another reason is because population decline is a much slower process whose full effects could take decades to be felt.

　　But make no mistake about it: Experts are now warning that the world's population is declining at faster than anticipated rates, which could end up having a dramatic effect on major sectors of the global economy, including energy.

　　In early July, Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation warned that declining and aging populations are no longer a problem for developed economies but, rather, most of the world is currently transitioning into natural population decline.

　　In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime; the fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 and is projected to fall below 1.7 by 2100.

　　That's well below the 2.1 children per woman that's considered the replacement level for developed nations, meaning the global population will be experiencing massive contraction by the turn of the century.

　　Indeed, the researchers have projected that the global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 before falling down to 8.8 billion by 2100.

　　Population Declines by Major Oil Consumers

　　What makes the long-term situation murky for the oil and gas bulls is the large population declines expected in major oil and gas consumers.

　　By 2100, China is the world's second-largest oil consumer in the world, with a daily consumption estimated at 12.8 million barrels per day, while Japan is the fourth largest with a daily consumption of 4.0 million barrels per day.

　　India, the third-largest oil-consuming nation, will fare a bit better but will still lose a quarter of its population by 2100. Russia, the 5th largest, is projected to see its population drop between 15-50%.

　　The U.S. population is projected to expand from the current 331 million in 2020 to 404 million in 2060, when it's expected to plateau.

　　The Eurozone—a region that consumes as much oil as the United States—is one of the few bright spots. Europe is projected to continue growing its population from 507 million in 2020 to 708 million in 20175 before falling to 689 million by 2100.

　　However, Europe also has also set some of the world's most aggressive climate targets, with the European Union having announced a raft of climate change proposals aimed at pushing it towards its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

　　The problem of falling populations is likely to be aggravated by an aging crisis.

　　The world's number of 80-year-olds is expected to rise from 141 million currently to 866 million by 2100, according to the BBC.

　　In the United States, the number of Americans aged 65 or older will jump nearly 75% by 2060 from 56.4 million to 98.2 million. This translates into a demand drop for gasoline of about 5% when looking at 2019 usage statistics and assuming an average of 20 miles per gallon, per driver. Miles driven per year drops dramatically from the 55-64 age bracket (11,972 miles per year) to 7,646 for the 65 and over age bracket.

　　Aging will also adversely affect the economy, with a 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ estimated to decrease the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5%.

　　The African Situation

　　Rapid population growth in Africa could take up some of that slack but will likely be far from adequate to stem the tide in the developed world.

　　Africa is an interesting case not only due to the fact that demographic forecasts of coming decades diverge in a way that could be crucial but also due to the fact that the continent has a huge population that consumes 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, or slightly less than India.

　　The UN expects Africa's population to double from 1.3 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050 and 4.3 billion people by 2100. The UN reckons that fertility rates in Africa—which have dropped to about 4.4 from 6.7 in 1980—will take another three decades to fall below three children per woman.

　　However, that underestimates the impact of a big jump in the number of girls who are now going to school across large parts of the continent. In the 1970s, little more than half of all children in sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school, a proportion that has since shot up to almost 100%.

　　Lessons garnered from other parts of the world that have recorded such dramatic increases in enrollment rates suggest that this factor cannot be underestimated in predicting the population growth curve.

　　Further, although emerging economies have mostly been missing in the ongoing ESG boom, Africa is catching up with the IMF predicting a meaningful shift in African power consumption to renewables by 2050, with most power expected to come from solar and wind by 2100.

　　Overall, we can surmise that population trends across the globe pose a slow yet real and insidious threat to the long-term oil demand outlook even in lieu of increasingly hostile climate policies by the world's governments.