据今日油价网站7月27日消息 据彭博社报道，由于日本是世界上最大的液化天然气进口国，日本雄心勃勃地将能源转向可再生能源正威胁着未来对液化天然气的需求。
日本上周公布了在未来十年内将可再生能源发电能力提高两倍的计划，将化石燃料在其能源结构中的比例降至50%以下，这项计划将包括在此期间将日本液化天然气发电量减半。
彭博社引述交易员和分析师的话称，这些雄心壮志可能导致到2030年日本的液化天然气进口量减少三分之一，也将终结目前占日本液化天然气供应大部分的长期液化天然气供应协议。
报道引述瑞士信贷能源分析师Saul Cavonic的话称：“此举将进一步抑制日本液化天然气买家签署2030年以后长期协议的意愿，如果需求最终高于目标水平，这可能使他们更容易受到短期价格动态的影响。”
要实现到2030年将二氧化碳排放量在2013年的基础上减少46%的目标可能会很困难。根据华尔街日报关于新能源计划的报道，这一目标比日本早先的减排承诺高出77%，这将涉及在一个可用土地稀缺的国家大幅提高太阳能和风力发电能力。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Japan Energy Transition Threatens LNG Demand
Japan’s ambitious energy shift to renewables is threatening future demand for liquefied natural gas as the country is the world’s largest importer of the commodity, Bloomberg reports.
Japan last week unveiled plans to boost renewable power generation capacity twofold over the next ten years, cutting the share of fossil fuels in its energy mix to less than 50 percent. The plan will involve halving the amount of energy Japan generates from liquefied natural gas over the period.
Bloomberg quotes traders and analysts as saying these ambitions could see LNG imports to Japan drop by a third by 2030 and will also put an end to long-term LNG supply deals that currently account for most of the country’s LNG supply.
“The move will further dampen Japanese LNG buyers’ appetite to sign long-term deals that extend beyond 2030, which could leave them more exposed to short-term price dynamics if demand ends up higher than targeted,” the report quoted Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Cavonic as saying.
Achieving the goal of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 46 percent from 2013 levels by 2030 may prove difficult. The target is 77 percent higher than Japan’s earlier emissions-cutting commitments, according to a Wall Street Journal report on the new energy plan. It will involve a substantial increase in solar and wind generation capacity in a country where available land is scarce.
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