据OILNOW网站12月12日消息 总部位于挪威的雷斯塔能源最近进行了“加速向更清洁燃料来源过渡如何影响石油和天然气供应商”的研究。这家能源研究和商业智能公司利用自己的数据驱动的能源供应预测得出结论，与工业化前水平相比，全球气温上升1.6°C仍然可能是一个趋势，尽管目前世界正朝着更大幅度的上升。

雷斯塔能源表示：“深入研究可能开发的油田类型（无论是石油还是天然气，还是涉及海底、浮式或固定式海上设施，常规项目还是非常规项目）有助于分析不同服务领域在不同情况下的发展情况。对于油田服务业的五大服务行业中的每一个，我们都可以计算未来三十年可能的复合年增长率，以确定哪些行业可能证明最具弹性。”

2020-2030年间，海底产品线可能表现最好，甚至可能在1.6摄氏度的情况下实现增长。

雷斯塔能源表示：“随着巴西和圭亚那在深水领域取得重大成功，海底设备和SURF的需求将大幅增长，因为这些不断增长的石油经济体在当前十年中严重依赖其化石燃料资源。”

维护、改造和运营（MMO）以及工程、采购、施工和安装（EPCI）行业预计在本十年内，随着勘探和生产运营商在未来五年优先考虑绿地项目，所有三种气候情景（1.6℃、1.8℃和2.0℃）都将出现增长。

圭亚那有一系列重大项目正在进行中，埃克森美孚运营的Stabroek区块正在建设中。Liza 1于2019年末开始产油，第二阶段计划于明年初投产。Payara的第三个项目已经获得批准，Yellowtail的第四个项目正在等待地方当局的批准。总的来说，到十年中期，这些项目每天将交付80多万桶石油。

吴恒磊 编译自 OILNOW

原文如下：

Major Guyana projects pushing oilfield service growth – Rystad Energy

Norway-based Rystad Energy recently examined how an accelerated transition to cleaner fuel sources could impact oil and gas suppliers. Using its own data-driven forecasts for energy supply, the energy research and business intelligence company concluded that a rise of 1.6°C versus pre-industrial levels can still be a likely trajectory for global temperatures, although at present the world is heading towards a larger increase.

“Looking deeper into what type of fields are likely to be developed – whether they be oil or gas, involve subsea, floating or grounded offshore facilities, be they conventional or unconventional projects – makes it possible to analyse how various service segments will develop in different scenarios,” Rystad Energy said. “For each of the major five service segments in oilfield services, we can compute the likely compound annual growth rates in the next three decades to see which segments are likely to prove the most resilient.”

Between 2020 and 2030, the subsea product lines are the one that are likely to fare best, potentially even posting growth in a 1.6-degree scenario.

“With the major deepwater successes in Brazil and Guyana, subsea equipment and SURF will see major demand growth as these growing oil economies are heavily dependent on their fossil fuel resources in the current decade,” Rystad Energy said.

The maintenance, modifications and operations (MMO) and engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) sectors are where it expects growth to occur in all three climate scenarios – 1.6°C, 1.8°C and 2.0°C – in this decade as greenfield projects being prioritized by exploration and production operators in the next five years.

Guyana has a string of major projects underway and in the pipeline at the giant ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block. Liza 1 began producing oil in late 2019 and Phase 2 is set to come on stream early next year. A third project at Payara is already approved and a fourth at Yellowtail is waiting the greenlight from local authorities. All told, these projects will deliver over 800,000 barrels of oil per day by mid-decade.

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