据美国彭博新闻社2022年1月12日报道，由于页岩生产商继续提高产量，美国明年的石油产量将创下历史新高。

根据美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的统计数据，到2023年，美国石油供应将平均每天1241万桶。 EIA在其月度短期能源展望报告中表示，这将超过2019年创下的目前每天1230万桶的年度高点。 EIA还将今年的产量预期下调至每日1180万桶。

EIA表示，从去年最后一个季度开始，美国石油产量预计将连续9个季度增长。 2019年底，美国石油产量达到月度峰值，几个月后，疫情爆发撼动了石油市场，迫使美国石油生产商削减产量。 自那以来，油价回升了50%以上，但主要产油国一直担心供应恢复过快，将月度数据保持在疫情前的高点以下。

EIA在月度报告中表示：“相对较高的原油价格应该会为增产提供充足的资金。”EIA预计，今年第4季度美国石油日产量将超过1200万桶。 美国基准原油期货价格今年开局强劲，自去年底以来每桶已上涨了5个多美元。  

EIA还预计，今年全球石油日供应量将升至创纪录的1.0105亿桶。 这一数字高于去年12月预测的1.0093亿。 EIA预计，到2023年，全球石油日产量将进一步上升至1.028亿桶。  

EIA在报告中称，今年全球石油日消费量将达到1.0052亿桶，高于此前估计的1.0046亿桶。 预计到2023年，全球石油日消费量将跃升至1.023亿桶。  

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下：

EIA expects shale to drive record U.S. oil production in 2023

U.S. annual oil production is set to rise to a record next year as shale producers continue to boost output.  

Oil supply will average 12.41 million barrels a day in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration. That would surpass the current annual high of 12.3 million barrels a day set in 2019, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The agency also lowered its production estimate for this year to 11.8 million barrels a day.

The projected rise in U.S. output would represent nine consecutive quarters of growth, beginning the last three months of 2021, the EIA said. U.S. crude production reached a monthly peak in late 2019, months before the pandemic jolted global markets and forced producers to slash output. Since then oil prices have recovered by more than 50% but major producers have been wary of bringing back supplies too quickly, keeping monthly figures below pre-pandemic highs.

“Relatively high crude oil prices should result in an ample availability of funding to support the production increase,” the EIA said in the monthly report. The agency sees domestic output surpassing 12 million barrels a day from the fourth quarter of this year. Benchmark U.S. crude futures prices have been off to a strong start to the year, adding over $5 a barrel since 2021 ended.

The agency also sees global petroleum supply rising to a record this year of 101.05 million barrels a day. That’s an upward revision from last month’s forecast of 100.93 million. The EIA expects global production will rise further to 102.8 million barrels a day in 2023.

Global consumption is set to reach 100.52 million barrels a day this year from its previous estimate of 100.46 million, according to the report. Consumption is expected to jump to 102.3 million barrels a day in 2023.

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