据国际能源及大宗商品价格评估机构阿格斯1月18日报道，全球需求将从2020年的1.2亿吨/年增加近四倍，达到4.1亿吨/年左右，其中可再生能源绿氢供应三分之二，蓝氢供应三分之一。蓝氢主要来源于天然气，但其碳排放被捕获、封存或再利用。化石衍生的灰氢，预计将被完全淘汰。

报告称，到2030年，绿氢可能在成本上对蓝氢具有竞争力，亚洲的电解成本较低，而在印度和巴西，可再生能源价格低廉，天然气价格昂贵。绿氢成本预期下降，加上更严格的气候缓解政策，意味着对蓝色或灰色氢的投资可能会搁浅。

目前已有30多个国家制定了氢气计划，而2017年只有日本制定了这一计划，低碳氢气市场的出现可能会影响经济和政治关系。

报告表示，澳大利亚、智利、摩洛哥、沙特阿拉伯和美国最有可能在2050年前成为主要的清洁氢生产国。澳大利亚、沙特阿拉伯和美国可以保留其能源出口国的角色，但智利、摩洛哥和纳米比亚等国家可能会转而成为能源净出口国，并获得地缘战略重要地位。

日本、韩国和欧洲部分国家和拉丁美洲可能需要进口氢气来满足需求，值得一提的是，德国和日本已经在通过外交途径确保获得氢气。

由于运输氢气既不切实际又成本高昂，目前大约85%的氢气是在现场生产和消耗的。国际可再生能源机构(IRENA)预计，到2050年，三分之二的能源将用于国内消费，其余将用于国际贸易。其中一半预计将通过管道输送，包括改造后的天然气管道，而另一半预计将以能量密度更高、更容易液化的“氨气”形式输送。

报告建议，清洁氢应该优先用于炼油厂，其次是钢铁制造和国际航运。城市车辆、短期储能和住宅供暖首选电气化解决方案。

王佳晶 摘译自 Argus Media

原文如下：

Hydrogen to meet 12pc of energy demand by 2050: Irena

Its Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation report projects global demand to near quadruple to around 410mn t/yr from 120mn t/yr in 2020, with green hydrogen produced from renewable energy supplying two-thirds and a third for blue hydrogen that is largely derived from gas but has its carbon emissions captured, stored or reused. Fossil-derived grey hydrogen, almost all the hydrogen currently produced, is expected to be entirely phased out.

Green hydrogen by 2030 may become cost-competitive with blue hydrogen in Asia because of low-cost electrolysers and in India and Brazil where renewables are cheap and gas is expensive, the report said.

"The expected cost reduction in green hydrogen coupled with stricter climate mitigation policies means that investments in blue or grey [hydrogen] may end up stranded," the report said.

More than 30 countries now have hydrogen plans compared with only Japan in 2017, with the emergence of a low-carbon hydrogen market likely to affect economic and political relations.

"Australia, Chile, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States are best placed to emerge as major clean hydrogen producers by 2050", the report said. Australia, Saudi Arabia and the US can retain their role as energy exporters but countries such as Chile, Morocco and Namibia could flip to become net exporters of energy and "gain in geostrategic importance".

Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe and Latin America will probably need imports to satisfy demand, the report said, highlighting that Germany and Japan are already engaged in diplomacy to secure access to hydrogen.

Around 85pc of hydrogen is currently produced and consumed on site because transporting the gas is impractical and costly. Irena expects two-thirds will be consumed domestically by 2050 and the remainder traded internationally. Of this, half is predicted to move via pipeline — including repurposed natural gas pipelines — while the other half is predicted to move in the form of ammonia that is more energy dense and easier to liquefy.

The report suggests clean hydrogen should be prioritised for use in refineries, followed by steel manufacturing and international shipping. Electrification-based solutions were preferred for urban vehicles, short-term energy storage and residential heating.

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