据今日油价网站1月21日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）周五表示，随着石油和天然气钻探效率的持续提高以及足够高的油价将支持包括煤炭在内的所有化石燃料产量的增加，美国的化石燃料产量预计将在2023年创历史新高。

在2020年疫情来袭下降后，化石燃料、天然气、原油和煤炭的生产总量在2021年上升了2%，达到了77.14万亿英热单位。美国政府预计，美国化石燃料产量今年和明年都将继续增长，超过2019年的产量水平，并在2023年达到新的纪录。

去年，干气占美国化石燃料总产量的最大份额，为46%。原油占30%，煤炭占15%，天然气液（NGPLs）占9%。EIA称，这些份额将在2023年前保持不变。

政府估计，去年干气产量增长了2%，并预测钻井效率和新井产量的提高将有助于使2022年的产量增加3%，2023年增加2%。

据估计，由于天然气价格上涨，发电需求增加，去年煤炭产量增长了7%。今年，随着燃煤发电厂重建库存水平，煤炭产量将增长6%。EIA称，到2023年，随着电力行业对煤炭的需求下降，煤炭产量将仅增长1%。

美国原油产量在2021年下降了1%，2022年将增长6%，2023年将增长为5%。

EIA表示：“我们预测，2022年和2023年，原油价格将保持在足够高的水平，以鼓励在用钻机数量的增长和钻井效率的持续提高。”

EIA在其1月份的《短期能源展望》（STEO）中表示，美国原油产量将超过疫情前的水平，并达到新的年平均水平，这主要是由于页岩产量的激增，因为更高的价格激励生产商钻更多的井来抵消下降率。美国明年的原油平均日产量将达到1240万桶。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production Set To Hit Record Highs In 2023

America’s production of fossil fuels is expected to hit a record high in 2023, as continued improvements in drilling efficiency in oil and gas and high enough oil prices will support increased output of all fossil fuels, including coal, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday.

The combined production of fossil fuels—natural gas, crude oil, and coal—rose in 2021 by 2 percent to 77.14 quadrillion British thermal units, following a decline in 2020, when the pandemic hit. The administration expects U.S. fossil fuel production to continue rising both this year and next, exceeding 2019 production levels and reaching a new record in 2023.

Last year, dry natural gas accounted for the largest share, 46 percent, of the total U.S. fossil fuel production. Crude oil accounted for 30 percent, coal for 15 percent, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for 9 percent. Those shares to remain similar through 2023, the EIA said.

Dry natural gas production rose by 2 percent last year in 2021, the administration estimates, and predicts that improvements in drilling efficiency and new-well production will contribute to production increases of 3 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023.

Coal production last year is estimated to have jumped by 7 percent due to higher demand for electricity generation on the back of rising natural gas prices. This year, coal production is set to rise by 6 percent as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. In 2023, coal production will rise by only 1 percent as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines, the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil production, which fell by 1 percent in 2021, is set for a 6-percent increase in 2022 and another 5 percent rise in 2023.

“We forecast that, in 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency,” the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil production is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels and reach a new annual average high, driven by a jump in shale output as higher prices incentivize producers to drill more wells to offset decline rates, the EIA said in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). America’s crude oil production is set to average 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year.

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