据今日油价网站1月27日消息 Carbon Tracker在本周的一份新报告中称，石油公司可能陷入价值5000亿美元的资产陷阱。

该报告表示：“飙升的油价可能会诱使石油和天然气公司做出长期投资决策，让股东付出高昂代价，但对能源转型采取谨慎的有管理的方式，最有助于保护股东价值，帮助社会实现气候目标。”

作者们注意到了最近油价的飙升，但警告大型石油公司不要放任其发展，因为各国政府做出的气候承诺，以及假定电动汽车的广泛采用，将很快扭转石油需求增长趋势。

与此同时，矿业和大宗商品行业提醒称，金属和矿产的价格正在上涨，这两种产品对太阳能、风能和电动汽车都至关重要。例如，在最近在沙特阿拉伯举行的未来矿产论坛上，巴里克公司首席执行官马克·布里斯托预测，铜市场可能会出现短缺。Hallgarten & Company策略师兼负责人克里斯托弗·埃克莱斯顿则表示，金属和矿产价格正处于稳定的上升轨道，不会恢复。

原材料成本的上涨已经开始影响可再生能源和电动汽车行业，使它们的产品更加昂贵，并减少了愿意转向低碳化石燃料替代品的人数。分析人士称，这也危及了能源转型的进展，大幅提高了价格。

即便如此，据Carbon Tracker报告的主要作者称，企业可能会将高油价视为一个巨大的霓虹灯似信号，指向对更多供应的投资。然而，如果他们在需求开始下降的时候继续进行输送石油的项目，这可能会成为一个噩梦。随着价格下跌，股东可能会面临灾难性的价值影响。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Higher Oil Prices Could Trigger $500 Billion In Stranded Assets

Oil companies could get caught in a stranded asset trap worth $500 billion, environmental think tank Carbon Tracker said in a new report this week.

According to the report, “Surging oil prices may tempt oil and gas companies to make long-term investment decisions that cost shareholders dearly, but a cautious “managed” approach to the energy transition would do most to preserve shareholder value and help society achieve climate goals.”

The authors noted the recent surge in oil prices but cautioned Big Oil about letting it go to their heads because climate commitments made by governments and the assumed wider adoption of EVs will soon reverse the oil demand growth trend.

At the same time, however, the mining and commodities industries are warning of rising prices for metals and minerals, both essential for solar, wind, and electric cars. At the recent Future Minerals Forum in Saudi Arabia, for instance, Barrick’s CEO Mark Bristow projected that the copper market could swing into a shortage, while Christopher Ecclestone, strategist and principal at Hallgarten & Company, said metals and minerals prices are on a stable upward trajectory and they are not coming back.

The rising costs of raw materials have already begun to affect the renewable energy and EV industry, making their products costlier and reducing the number of people willing to switch to a lower-carbon alternative to fossil fuels. It has also jeopardized the progress of the energy transition, according to analysts, raising the price tag substantially.

Even so, according to the lead author of the Carbon Tracker report, “Companies may see high prices as a huge neon sign pointing towards investment in more supply. However, this could become a nightmare scenario if they go ahead with projects which deliver oil around the time that demand starts to decline. Shareholders could face catastrophic levels of value destruction as prices fall.”

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