据美国油价网2022年2月21日报道，欧佩克+联盟产油国1月份的减产大幅增加，这表明名义月度产量配额和实际市场供应之间的差距继续扩大。 

一位欧佩克+联盟消息人士周一对路透社表示，欧佩克+联盟成员国1月份减产协议履行率为129%。 这一数字高于去年12月份的122%和11月份的117%。 

这名消息人士告诉路透社，去年1月份，欧佩克产油国的减产协议履行率跃升至133%，而欧佩克+协议的非欧佩克成员国的总体履行率为123%。  

由于油价在地缘政治风险溢价下的紧张市场中反弹，欧佩克+联盟的名义产量和实际产量之间的差距不断扩大，从而推动油价走高。  

自去年8月以来，欧佩克+联盟每次会议都宣布每月日增40万桶的名义产量，但实际上过去半年来，欧佩克+联盟每月增加的市场供应量都低于这一数字。

据国际能源署(IEA) 2月份石油市场月度报告估计，1月份欧佩克+联盟产量与其目标水平之间的差距高达90万桶/天。

“如果欧佩克+联盟的产量与其目标水平之间的缺口持续存在，供应紧张将会加剧，增加更大的波动性和价格上行压力。 但如果中东地区产能过剩的产油国能够弥补产能枯竭带来的损失，这些具有广泛经济影响的风险可能会降低。”  

上周，国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在一周内两次敦促欧佩克+联盟缩小其生产配额和市场实际供应之间不断扩大的差距。 

2月21日，包括沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、科威特和阿联酋在内的中东最大产油国的能源部长表示，尽管人们呼吁增加供应以冷却油价，欧佩克+联盟应该坚持每月日增40万桶原油产量计划。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

OPEC+ Underproduction Is Pushing Oil Prices Higher

The compliance of OPEC+ producers with their output cut surged in January, suggesting that the gap between nominal monthly output quotas and actual supply to the market continued to widen.

OPEC+ members complied with a massive 129 percent of the production cuts last month, an OPEC+ source told Reuters on Monday. That’s up from 122 percent compliance in December and a compliance rate of 117 percent in November.

In January 2021, OPEC producers’ compliance jumped to 133 percent, while the non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact had their overall compliance rate at 123 percent, the source told Reuters.

As oil prices rally in a tight market with a geopolitical risk premium, the widening gap between what OPEC+ has to produce on paper and the reality of oil output is pushing prices higher.

For half a year now, OPEC+ has actually added lower volumes to the market each month than the 400,000 bpd nominal monthly increase announced in each of the OPEC+ meetings since August 2021.

Estimates in the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report for February showed that the gap between OPEC+ production and its target levels surged to as much as 900,000 bpd in January.

“If the persistent gap between OPEC+ output and its target levels continues, supply tensions will rise, increasing the likelihood of more volatility and upward pressure on prices. But these risks, which have broad economic implications, could be reduced if producers in the Middle East with spare capacity were to compensate for those running out,” the IEA said.

Last week, the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol urged OPEC+ twice in one week to narrow the widening gap between its production quotas and the much lower actual supply to the market.

On Sunday, the energy ministers of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, said that OPEC+ should stick to the plan to raise production by 400,000 bpd each month despite calls to boost supply more to cool oil prices.