石油分析公司Vortexa认为：面对精制石油产品的需求迅速增长，炼油企业供应难以跟上

 亚洲和欧洲的大多数炼油企业将在第二季度进入炼油厂维护季

 欧洲天然气价格、原油价格和碳税成本的上涨，正在挤压炼油企业的利润率

据美国油价网2月15日报道，根据石油分析公司Vortexa的一项最新分析，全球成品油的价格正在飙升，甚至比原油本身的价格还要高，因为全球对这些成品油的需求已经超出了炼油企业的承受能力。

精制石油产品的库存现在接近历史最低水平——考虑到亚洲和欧洲即将迎来的炼油厂维护季节，这些精制石油产品库存历史最低水平看起来不会很快大幅缓解。

亚洲和欧洲的大多数炼油企业将在第二季度进入炼油厂维护季节。 但Vortexa说，到目前为止，没有迹象表明这些炼油厂计划在维修季节前提高成品油产量，为企业扭亏为盈提供缓冲。  

这意味着，目前的紧缩政策可能很快会变得更紧缩。

人们可能会惊讶地发现，目前全球成品油的高价格并没有吸引炼油企业提高产量。 但由于天然气价格上涨、原油价格上涨以及欧洲碳税成本上升，炼油企业的成本上升，这些都正在吸收额外的衍生利润。  

在美国，汽油供应也很低，而且还在下降，部分原因是第一季度炼油厂和FCC的维护。

在世界各地，备用炼油产能并不是普遍可以获得。 据Vortexa称，日本是少数几个具有备用炼油产能的国家之一，但在过去两个月里，日本的炼油产能也比去年6月提高了40%。 墨西哥也有一些备用炼油产能，但它已经多年没有利用这些备用产能了。

很可能只有成品油价格进一步上涨，才能吸引墨西哥将部分备用产能重新投入使用。

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Oil Refining Industry Can't Keep Up With Demand

·     Vortexa: quickly rising demand for refined products is proving too much for refiners to keep up with.

·     Most refiners in Asia and Europe enter their refining maintenance season in Q2.

·     Higher natural gas prices, higher crude oil prices, and higher carbon tax costs in Europe are shrinking profit margins for refiners.

The price of global refined products are soaring—even more so than crude oil itself, as demand for those refined products is proving too much for refiners to keep up with, according to a new analysis by Vortexa.

Inventories of refined products are now near historic lows—and given the refining maintenance season that will soon be upon Asia and Europe, it doesn't look that those historical lows are going to ease substantially.

Most refiners in Asia and Europe enter their refining maintenance season in Q2. But so far, Vortexa says, there is no indication that those refineries have plans to ramp up production ahead of maintenance season to provide a cushion to survive turnaround.

What this means is that today's tightening may soon grow even tighter.

One might find it surprising that today's high global refined products prices aren't enticing refiners to up their runs. But higher costs for refiners as a result of higher natural gas prices, higher crude oil prices, and higher carbon tax costs in Europe are sucking up the extra cracks.

In the United States, gasoline supplies are also low—and falling--in part due to refinery and FCC maintenance in Q1.

Around the world, spare refining capacity is not widely available. According to Vortexa, Japan is one of the few countries with refining capacity to spare, but even Japan has, over the last two months, increased run rates by 40% compared to June 2021. Mexico has some spare capacity as well, but it hasn't tapped that capacity in years, and China has spare capacity.

It's likely that only a greater increase in refined products prices could entice Mexico to bring some of that capacity back online.