据ICIS-MRC网站3月3日莫斯科报道，根据烃加工网信息显示，EIA在其2月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中，对美国生物柴油、可再生柴油和其他生物燃料的生产、消费以及净进口少于出口进行了新的预测。

这一新突破为美国可再生柴油生产提供了更详细的预测。在之前发布的STEO中，EIA预测了以生物质为基础的柴油消费量，将美国消耗的生物柴油的生产和进口总量加在一起。进口可再生柴油量，不包括国内生产的可再生柴油。将生物柴油与可再生柴油区分开来，可以更精确地计算基于生物质的柴油。

与生物柴油一样，可再生柴油的使用也符合美国环保局(EPA)管理的《可再生燃料标准》(RFS)中关于生物质柴油可再生量的规定。这两种燃料还满足了RFS对非纤维素先进生物燃料95%或更高的要求 。EPA提出的2022 年规则要求提高这两个类别的产量。此外，包括加利福尼亚州的低碳燃料标准和俄勒冈州的清洁燃料计划在内的州级项目，已经鼓励几家炼油厂改用可再生柴油。由于这些改造和可再生柴油炼油厂的新建，EIA预计到2023年底，美国可再生柴油的产能将从目前的7.7万桶/日增加近两倍。

根据可再生柴油工厂建设和 EPA 提出的 2022 RFS 规则，EIA 预测可再生柴油产量将在2022年和2023年显著增加。

EIA还认为，美国可再生柴油产能的大幅提升，将给本已高企的原料油价格增加上行压力，从而限制其预测中的实际产量增长。

郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

EIA inctorduces new forecasts of renewable diesel and other biofuels

In the EIA’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), they introduced new forecasts of US production, consumption, and the net of imports less exports of biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels in the US, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

This new breakout provides a more detailed forecast for U.S. renewable diesel production. In previous STEO releases, the EIA forecast biomass-based diesel consumption, which combined all production and imports of biodiesel consumed in the US. with imported volumes of renewable diesel, not including domestically produced renewable diesel. Differentiating biodiesel from renewable diesel, provides a more precise accounting of biomass-based diesel.

Like biodiesel, renewable diesel is used to comply with the renewable volume obligations for biomass-based diesel in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) administered by the US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The two fuels also supply 95% or more of the RFS requirement for non-cellulosic advanced biofuels. The EPA’s proposed rule for 2022 calls for higher production in both of these categories. In addition, state-level programs, including California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program, have encouraged several petroleum refineries to convert to renewable diesel. As a result of these conversions and new construction of renewable diesel refineries, the EIA expects US production capacity of renewable diesel to nearly triple by the end of 2023 from the current production capacity of 77,000 bpd.

based on renewable diesel plant construction and the EPA’s proposed rule for the 2022 RFS, the EIA forecasts that renewable diesel production will increase significantly in 2022 and 2023.

The EIA also assumes a significant ramp-up in the US production capacity of renewable diesel will add upward pressure to already high feedstock oil prices, which limits actual production growth in their forecast.