据今日油价网站3月18日消息 美国能源信息管理署（EIA）周五表示，到2050年可再生能源发电在美国电力中的份额将增加一倍以上，从当前的21%增加到44%，因为风能和太阳能装置预计将激增。

另一方面，根据EIA在其2022年年度能源展望（AEO2022）的参考案例中的估计，预计2050年化石燃料发电量将从2021年的60%下降到44%。

化石燃料发电量下降的主要驱动力将是天然气发电量增长放缓，以及燃煤发电机的持续退役。EIA表示，到2050年，天然气发电量将增加，但美国发电混合天然气的份额2050年将从37%下降至34%。煤炭发电量2050年预计将从2021年的23%下降至10%。

太阳能和风能将在未来三十年内推动可再生能源发电的增长，因为到2050年水力发电预计不会有太大变化，同时地热和生物质发电总量占美国总发电量的比例仍将不到3%。

可再生能源已经占到了美国新增电力容量的大部分。今年1月，EIA称，美国将向电网增加46.1吉瓦的新公用事业规模发电容量。计划在2022年增加的产能中，近一半（46%）将是太阳能，其次是天然气（21%）和风能（17%）。EIA称，2022年新增风力发电能力中，预计超过一半（51%）将位于得克萨斯州。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Renewables Will Generate 44% Of U.S. Electricity In 2050

Renewable power generation is set to more than double its share in America’s electricity to 44 percent in 2050 from 21 percent now, as wind and solar installations are expected to surge, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday.

Power generation from fossil fuels, on the other hand, is expected to decline from 60 percent in 2021 to 44 percent in 2050, according to EIA’s estimates in the Reference case of its Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022), which assumes current laws and regulations. 

The key drivers of the decline in fossil fuel power generation will be slower growth of natural gas-fired generation and the continued retirement of coal-fired power generators. By 2050, natural gas-fired generation is set to increase in absolute terms, but the share of natural gas in the U.S. power generation mix will fall from 37 percent in 2021 to 34 percent in 2050, the EIA says. The share of coal in power generation is forecast to slump to 10 percent in 2050 from 23 percent in 2021.

So, it will be solar and wind that will drive the growth of renewable power generation over the next three decades, as hydropower is not expected to change much through 2050, while geothermal and biomass would collectively remain less than 3 percent of total U.S. electricity generation. 

Renewables are already accounting for most of the new power capacity coming online in the United States. This year, the U.S. is set to add 46.1 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric generating capacity to the power grid, the EIA said in January. Almost half—or 46 percent—of the planned 2022 capacity additions will be solar power, followed by natural gas at 21 percent and wind at 17 percent. Just over half—or 51 percent—of the 2022 wind capacity additions are expected to be located in Texas, the EIA said.