据加勒比环球新闻网12月21日华盛顿报道，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的石油出口国应该将国内生产总值(GDP)的5%至10%作为缓冲，以应对未来油价大幅波动。对许多非洲国家来说，这意味着它们需要在未来10年期间保持每年高达1%的财政盈余。

正如在最新的区域经济展望中指出的那样，在过去两年里，石油价格从每桶23美元的低点波动到120美元的高点，导致依赖石油的经济体的收入高度不确定。然而，非洲地区大多数石油出口国还没有积累足够的资金来应对不可预测的油价变化。事实上，撒哈拉以南非洲地区国家的主权财富基金持有的资产仅占GDP的1.8%，而中东和北非地区国家的主权财富基金持有的资产占GDP的72%，这迫使撒哈拉以南非洲国家在油价下跌时借入或提取金融资产。

因此，在过去截至2020年的10年里，撒哈拉以南非洲地区石油生产国的年增长速度比非资源密集型国家慢了2个百分点以上，偿债成本也几乎是其他国家的两倍。

此外，由于各国向低碳能源转型，石油收入可能会大幅下降。到2030年前，撒哈拉以南非洲地区国家的石油收入可能会下降四分之一，到2050年，下降一半。现在建立缓冲将有助于该地区石油出口国在应对油价波动的同时顺利向清洁能源转型。

李峻 编译自 加勒比海环球新闻网

原文如下：

Savings From Oil Revenues Could Help Africa's Producers Manage Price Swings

Oil exporters in sub-Saharan Africa should target buffers of around 5 to 10 percent of gross domestic product to manage large swings in oil prices. For many countries, this means they will need to maintain annual fiscal surpluses up to 1 percent per annum over a 10-year period.

As noted in our latest regional economic outlook , oil prices have fluctuated from lows of $23 per barrel to a peak of $120 over the last two years, resulting in highly uncertain revenues in oil-dependent economies. However, most oil exporters in the region haven't accumulated enough savings to insure against unpredictable oil price changes. In fact, sovereign wealth funds in sub-Saharan Africa hold assets of just 1.8 percent of gross domestic product compared to 72 percent in the middle east and north africa forcing countries to borrow or draw down financial assets when oil prices fall.

As a result, in the decade through 2020, the region's oil producers have grown over 2 percentage points slower per year than non-resource intensive countries. Debt service costs have also been almost twice as high than in other sub-Saharan African countries.

Moreover, as countries transition to low-carbon energy sources, oil revenues could sharply decline. By 2030, oil revenues in the region could fall by as much as a quarter and by 2050, by half. Building buffers now would help the region's oil exporters navigate the transition toward clean energy while managing oil price fluctuations.