据烃加工网3月22日报道，据行业分析师称，随着美国炼油商调整业务，以应对未来10年国内汽车燃料需求的下降，他们将寻求最大限度地提高柴油和生物燃料的产量以出口。

随着全球柴油库存下降和需求激增，全球炼油能力的合理化以及地缘政治冲突的继续鼓励美国炼油商优先考虑馏分油。

在去年的高峰期，美国炼油厂每天出口创纪录的157万桶蒸馏燃料，利润率每桶超过70美元，是汽油的两倍多。

Tudor，Pickering and Holt分析师表示，尽管馏分油利润率已降至每桶31.35美元左右，但仍是5年平均水平的两倍。

精炼燃料分析公司(Refined Fuels Analytics)董事总经理奥尔斯(John Auers)说，这些利润将鼓励全球下游企业投资生产柴油和其他高价值产品。

Auers在圣安东尼奥举行的美国燃料和石化制造商年会上表示，未来面临最大风险的将是那些生产更多汽油的炼油厂。

在21世纪的大部分时间里，由于发动机燃油效率的提高和电动汽车数量的增加，美国人均汽油需求一直在下降。

然而Auers预测，到2045年，中等馏分油的总需求将增加1080万桶/天，增幅为32%，其中柴油将增加480万桶，航空燃料将增加600万桶。

运输燃料产量的增长将集中在生物燃料上。马拉松石油公司和菲利普斯66公司等炼油厂一直在对炼油厂进行改造，以生产可再生柴油和可持续航空燃料等生物燃料。

根据精炼燃料分析公司汇编的数据显示，2022年，美国可再生柴油产量超过10万桶/日，是2021产量的两倍多。

Auers说，到2025年，美国将成为重要的生物燃料出口国，可能是世界上最大的可持续航空燃料和可再生柴油出口国。

郝芬 译自 烃加工网

原文如下：

U.S. refiners shift focus to distillates amid energy transition

As U.S. refiners rejigger operations to reflect declining domestic motor fuels demand in the next decade, they will seek to maximize diesel and biofuels production for exports, industry analysts say.

A rationalization of global refining capacity along with the war has encouraged U.S. refiners to prioritize distillates as global diesel inventories sagged and demand jumped.

At its peak last year, U.S. refiners were exporting a record 1.57 million barrels per day of distillate fuel, with profit margins topping $70 a barrel, more than double that of gasoline.

While distillate margins have cooled to around $31.35 a barrel, according to analysts at Tudor, Pickering and Holt, they remain double the five-year average.

Those profits will encourage downstream companies globally to invest in producing diesel and other high-value products, said John Auers, managing director of Refined Fuels Analytics.

"The refineries that will be most at risk in the future will be those that are geared to produce more gasoline," Auers said in remarks at the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers annual meeting in San Antonio.

Gasoline demand per capita has been declining in the United States for much of the 21st century, due to increased fuel efficiency of engines and rising share of electric vehicles.

In contrast, Auers forecasts that total middle distillates demand will increase by 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd), or 32%, by 2045, with diesel growing by 4.8 million barrels and jet fuel by 6 million barrels.

Transportation fuel production growth will be focused on biofuels. Oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have been retrofitting oil refineries to produce biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.

U.S. production of renewable diesel topped 100,000 bpd in 2022, more than double 2021's production level, according to data compiled by Refined Fuel Analytics.

The U.S. will become an important biofuels exporter, likely the world’s largest, of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel by 2025, Auers said.