阿根廷蓬勃发展的页岩探区瓦卡姆尔塔远景区的原油产量可能在未来几年激增，原油日产量到2030年结束前将达到100万桶

缺乏运输能力和钻机可用性可能会抑制阿根廷的原油产量增长

截至今年2月，瓦卡姆尔塔页岩远景区的原油日总产量达到29.1万桶，年增7.6万桶

据油价网2023年5月31日报道，阿根廷瓦卡姆尔塔页岩远景区的原油日产量在未来几年可能会激增，并在本十年结束前达到100万桶，但前提是开采能力和可用钻机数量不会限制产量增长。挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）的模型显示，如果原油生产相对畅通，该远景区原油日产量可能从今年2月的29.1万桶增加到2030年下半年的100多万桶。

预测的增长可能会提升瓦卡姆尔塔页岩远景区的地位，使其与美国两个世界级页岩盆地巴肯盆地或鹰福特盆地等开发项目一样，成为页岩油生产的主要来源。它还将帮助阿根廷内乌肯地区成为原油净出口地区，到2030年前可能为该地区贡献200亿美元的总收入。原油出口可能会流向南美邻国巴西、智利和秘鲁，以及美国和欧洲。

不过，阿根廷的原油生产仍存在一些重大问题，这可能会改变阿根廷原油产量长期增长前景。外销产能限制依然存在，可用钻机数量仍然令人担忧。对于瓦卡姆尔塔页岩盆地的运营商来说，学习曲线非常陡峭，他们需要继续保持这一趋势，以最大限度地提高生产潜力。如果所有行业参与者共同努力，在这些限制变得至关重要之前解决这些问题，那么阿根廷的原油日产量可能很快就会超过100万桶。

雷斯塔能源页岩研究主管Alexandre Ramos Peon表示：“在经历了十多年的原油产量下降之后，瓦卡姆尔塔页岩远景区可能是阿根廷未来能源经济的关键。尽管面临重大挑战，但达到重要的日产100万桶原油的门槛将改变阿根廷的能源叙事，减少对进口的依赖，并成为地区和全球石油市场的关键参与者。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale Play Could Produce 1 Million Bpd In 2030

·     Crude oil production from Argentina’s burgeoning shale patch, Vaca Muerta, could surge in the coming years and top 1 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

·     Lack of takeaway capacity and rig availability could curb production growth.

·     As of February 20223, Vaca Muerta’s gross oil production reached 291,000 bpd, an annual addition of 76,000 bpd.

Crude oil production from Argentina’s burgeoning shale patch, Vaca Muerta, could surge in the coming years and top 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the decade – but only if takeaway capacity and rig availability do not limit growth. Rystad Energy’s modeling shows that if production is relatively unimpeded, oil output could realistically grow from 291,000 bpd in February 2023 to more than 1 million bpd in the second half of 2030.

The forecast growth could lift Vaca Muerta’s profile and position it as a leading source of shale production, alongside the likes of the Bakken or Eagle Ford developments, two of the US’ world-class shale basins. It would also help the Neuquen region become a net oil exporter, potentially contributing $20 billion in total revenue by 2030. Crude exports could be making their way to South American neighbors Brazil, Chile and Peru, as well as the US and Europe.

Still, big question marks remain, which could potentially alter our long-term growth outlook. Takeaway capacity constraints linger, and rig availability remains an ongoing concern. The learning curve for operators in the basin has been steep, and they will need to continue this trend to maximize their production potential. If all industry participants work together to address these constraints before they become critical, output could top 1 million bpd sooner rather than later. 

“Vaca Muerta could hold the key to Argentina’s future energy economy following more than a decade of oil production declines. While major challenges lie ahead, reaching the important 1 million barrels per day threshold would change the country’s narrative, reduce its reliance on imports and become a key regional and global oil market player,” says Alexandre Ramos Peon, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.